After an interesting 2020, here we are in 2021. So where is the Comox Valley real estate market headed and what can home buyers and sellers expect for the coming year?

Let’s start with what the British Columbia Real Estate Association (BCREA) expects. They provide five reasons why 2021 is looking considerably brighter than 2020. First, despite what may be the second worst recession in BC history (a decline in BC’s real GDP by 5.5% in 2020), the housing market had a record fall 2020 season and prices are rapidly rising as pent-up demand floods into an under-supplied market. Second, as that pent-up demand from the loss of a spring season fades, sales will likely slow from their current pace, but activity is expected to remain strong as record-low mortgage rates and a recovering economy continue to drive sales. Third, the average Canadian 5-year fixed rate has fallen to under 2 per cent, the result of a rapid and overwhelming policy response to the COVID-19 pandemic from the Bank of Canada. The Bank has signaled that it may hold its policy rate at its effective lower bound of 0.25 per cent until as late as 2023 and will continue its quantitative easing program until the Canadian economy is on a sustained path to full recovery. The combination of those actions by the Bank of Canada should keep mortgage rates very low for the foreseeable future. Fourth, The BC economy is showing signs of recovery, though that recovery is very much K-shaped in that some sectors are recovering at a much faster rate while others continue to languish. Higher-wage sectors have seen employment fully regain pre-pandemic levels, which partially explains the continued strength of the ownership market in BC. Fifth, On the supply side, active listings remain low due to hesitation on the part of sellers to list during the pandemic. Some additional supply may come online following the end of mortgage deferral programs, but given the tightness of market conditions, that supply is unlikely to be disruptive. Overall, BCREA anticipates strong momentum heading into 2021, with sales ultimately rising 9.7 per cent to 99,240 units. The provincial MLS® average price will finish the year up 9.9 per cent before rising a further 2.6 per cent in 2021.

So, what about the Comox Valley? Sales activity remained relatively strong at the end of 2020 and multiple offers in the home sales average price ranges were relatively frequent. This was mainly because a falling supply of good listings. This, in turn, led to rising home prices. New home construction remained strong and as employment starts to recover, we should see the market pick up in strength and numbers of listings. Home sellers should not hesitate to get their homes on the market early this year and home buyers should expect an increased number of listings and more choice as 2021 progresses. In a typical year, the home sales listing cycle begins in early January and steadily climbs until it peaks around the end of May. Thereafter, this is a drop to the end of July and another drop after Labour Day.

For Vancouver Island, the Vancouver Island Real Estate Board expects, that, even as pent-up demand on the Island begins to fade, activity in the housing market will remain strong. Mortgage rates are expected to remain near historic lows for quite some time, and demand from those able to work from home or those accelerating retirement plans will keep demand for real estate robust on Vancouver Island. The Vancouver Island board region will likely see an increase of 7.9 per cent next year to 8,900 units. Here in the Comox Valley the expectation should be similar. Many people from the mainland have moved to the valley as their retirement and relocation choice given our great weather, scenery, and quality of life.

If you are looking for a retirement or relocation option why not give the Comox Valley serious consideration? Contact Brett for help either selling your home in the Comox Valley or for help finding and purchasing your next home in this fabulous part of Vancouver Island. Brett specializes in Crown Isle, Comox and Courtenay homes for sale as well as luxury and waterfront offerings. When you need local market expertise that you can count on contact Brett.

During the COVID-19 reaction clients have called to ask if the Crown Isle real estate market is active. Yes, absolutely it is. There are currently 27 homes on the market and there were five sales in March and one in April even though we were in lock-down mode at the time.. May numbers will be out shortly but they will not tell the full story because many of the deals completed in May will not be completed until the June or July time frame and later.  There is a good selection of single-family homes in the $700,000 to $800,000 price range and some go up to over $1.2 million. Custom and semi-custom homes are the most common types and sizes are typically in the 1700 to 2500 square foot range.

Move over to the quaint seaside town of Comox and yes there is activity there as well. There are 60 homes for sale and the vast majority are single family. Most of the homes on the resale market are in the $500,000 to $800,000 range and the styles span a spectrum from the fairly common split level variety to West Coast contemporary. Within Comox there were 10 sales in March, 7 in April and 5 already reported in May. Sale prices ranged from $430,000 to $920,000. Resale home offerings can be found in most of the popular family neighbourhoods and listings continue to get added to the market each week. So, if you are in need of a home in this area perhaps now is the time to start looking so that you find the one that meets your needs before school starts in the fall – which is only just over 3 months away.

Courtenay is the powerhouse of the overall housing market is this region and there are 148 single-family homes for sale in many different price ranges throughout the five resale areas (Courtenay City, Courtenay East, Courtenay West, Courtenay North and Courtenay South). There were 44 homes listed in the month of May. Many of the homes are being offered in the $500,000 to $700,000 price range with a few that top the $1 million level. This part of the market has the most to offer in terms of numbers of homes and areas within the city. Why not drop by and take a first-hand look for yourself? If you are serious about buying or selling contact Brett in advance and make an appointment to discus your needs and he will tell you how he can help meet your real estate needs and what he does differently from others.

Before discussing Crown Isle real estate, let’s mention how Christmas in Crown Isle is magical. Drive around this community of high-end homes at night and take in the Christmas decorations and lights. There are a number of social events that take place at this time of the year as well. The Christmas Market at Crown Isle takes place on the 15th of December along with a breakfast with Santa. Do not forget about the Christmas Dinner Buffet on the 25th of December at the Crown Isle Resort.

What about real estate? The Crown Isle Resort and Golf Community is a jewel in the Comox Valley real estate market. While it only accounts for a small faction of the overall home sales in the Comox Valley, it does account for a significant number of high-end executive and luxury home sales.

The entry level for single-family homes in Crown Isle was about $600,000 in 2017. At the end of 2019, these same homes are being sold for about $750,000. A total of 36 homes exchanged hands as of mid Dec 2019. Prices ranged from a low of about $571,000 to a high of 1.04M. Most of the home sold were above $700,000. Ranchers and ranchers with bonus rooms were among the most popular styles of homes sold.

In 2019, only one home sold for more than $1M. Prior to 2010 there was one home that sold above $1 million and the next million-dollar sale did not occur until 2013. Five years later there were four million-dollar sale in 2018. As of mid December 2019, there were five homes listed for more than a million dollars and time on the market varied from 11 days to 120 days. Clearly, this luxury homes market has gone through some interesting cycles, particularly those of 2018 with the wild swings in prices month to month. As of the writing of this update, there were 27 homes of all types on the market in this golf course bordered community, and their time on the market ranged from 11 days to 331 days. Like all real estate markets, Crown Isle is local and it is affected by a number of local influences.

Yes, 2018 was a significant real estate year in Crown Isle but at the end of 2019 there are definite signs of change and more stabilization. Prices are starting to follow a more normal cycle and prices, in a number of instances, have stabilized and even corrected downwards slightly is some segments of the home market. This resale home market has been in direct competition to the new home builders’ market that continues strongly as it moved to encircle Crown Isle Drive and extend down Crown Isle Boulevard towards the Comox Peninsula. Having said this, soon, the new homes market will taper off as lots for sale have dropped in numbers commensurate with this development approaching its capacity. As new construction tapers off, it will shift outside of Crown Isle to the next big home development that is expected to be approved for Union Bay. If you are looking for a luxury home in an established high-end neighbourhood close to many amenities, contact Brett for more information on Crown Isle.

The Canadian real estate market has been hot over the past few years. Real estate is, first and foremost, about location. It is, therefore, important to select the right location that best meets your needs before taking the plunge and investing your hard earned money is a specific area. Once invested make sure that you take a longer term view and that you are not just there to flip a property in the short term.

Toronto and Vancouver are the two market areas that are almost always in the news. Toronto is a city of more than 2.7 million people (actual number 2,731,571) according to the latest 2016 census numbers. This represents an increase of 6.2% in growth since the previous 2011 census. This number grows to close to 6 million (actual figure 5,928,040) when you add in the census metropolitan area that includes all of the city’s suburban areas. Toronto ranks number 1 among the country’s 35 census metropolitan areas.

In contrast the city of Vancouver is home to 631,486 people in the metro area and the Greater Vancouver area is home to a population of nearly 2.5 million (actual number 2,463,431) people. The most recent population census confirmed that population growth in the metro Vancouver area outpaced the national average by about 5%.

Both cities are quite diverse in many different ways. Toronto sits on the shore of Lake Ontario in the Province of Ontario just north of the state of New York. Vancouver is a bustling sea port on Canada’s West Coast and it is situated about 4 hours north of the similar sized city of Seattle in the State of Washington.

The BC government introduced a 15% surtax on foreign homebuyers on the 2nd of August 2016 as part of a plan announced to tackle the city’s affordability crisis for the average person. Although home prices dipped for a while after the introduction of the tax, they started bouncing back in early 2017. Shortly after the introduction of the tax Toronto home prices started skyrocketing – an effect linked to the Vancouver foreign buyer tax. The new BC government announced a review of this tax.

Home prices in Toronto soared in early 2017 and the average home price was up about 25% in April compared to the 2016. Amid fears of a housing bubble the Ontario government announced a package on the 20th of April that was called the Fair Housing Plan that included a 15% tax on foreign buyers. The tax had an immediate cooling effect on the market.

What about other markets? Home sales across Canada in October were up by a seasonally adjusted modest increase of 0.9% over September according to the Canadian Real Estate Association. The increase was led by the Greater Toronto Area and the Fraser Valley on the West Coast. CREA added that Greater Vancouver prices were up about 12.4% and the Fraser Valley was up by more than 17%.

Starting in October 2015 the newly elected Liberal government began to tighten mortgage lending rules. Additional changes were announced in October 2016 and again in October 2017. The most recently announced rules will take effect on the 1st of January 2018.

On one hand the provincial governments of BC and Ontario introduced foreign buyer taxes to make housing more affordable in their respective largest cities. On the other hand the federal government continued to tighten and change mortgage rules that will continue to make it harder for the average person to get a mortgage. The foreign buyer taxes had nothing more than a temporary effect on sales. The federal mortgage changes will make it harder for may people to get mortgages and the changes may push some people to consider riskier financing options.

The Ontario Real Estate Association, commenting on the new changes coming for 2018, said that the Liberal Federal Government changes are overkill and that they “will hurt middle class families and punish careful savers most”.

The federal government claims to be helping the middle class but their actions are not helpful. In fact, the impact of things like the federal government’s tax changes, according to the Financial Post, will have the middle class paying more under Trudeau. It is difficult to see how Trudeau is helping the middle class when he has increased taxes (with more such as the Carbon Tax to come) and made it harder for people to get mortgages. At the same time, the BC NDP government has also already announced income tax increases. Let’s hope that no more increases are forthcoming.

Locally, the Comox Valley continues to see increased prices and lower supply in its housing market. While it remains to be seen what the real impact of these federal changes will be, most experts do not expect positive results. If house prices continue to rise as mainland residents look towards Vancouver Island for more reasonably priced home options, and the Trudeau government continues to make it harder for people to get mortgages, local residents may find it harder to afford local homes. Tax increases at the federal and provincial levels will only exacerbate the problem of affordable homes. Stay tuned for a market update in the new year.

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• The 2017 Forecast for the Comox Valley Real Estate Market

The 2017 Comox Valley real estate market forecast examines trends throughout the year. There have been three peak real estate sales years in the Comox Valley since 2000. They occurred in 2004, 2007 and most recently in 2016. In addition to increasing sales, prices also rose in 2016 starting in April and running through most of the subsequent six months. The median price of a single family home in Comox nearly broke the $400,000 level in July 2016 and median and average prices continued to climb. Two years earlier the median price sat at $345,000. In July 2017 the median price had climbed to nearly $480,000 with an average price just over $555,000. Prices corrected statistically in Aug and Sept but since the number of listings and sales was small and most listings in the lower price range this change cannot yet be considered a change in trend.

The Comox Valley real estate market is not the same in all sectors. The following infographic shows this for three sectors in July 2017. Note that single family homes which comprise most of the market overall are selling most quickly

The next chart shows how single family homes in Comox have increased in price over the past year up to the end of July 2017 and then there was a correction in August 2017. There were only 15 single family home sales in Comox in August so it it too early to tell whether or not this one month drop will be the start of a trend or not.

So what will happen in the rest of 2017 and into next year?

First, prices are expected to continue to rise. How fast will depend on how many new listings hit the market. Increases in single family home prices in the 2 to 5% range are not out of the range of possibilities. Second, the number of sales has dropped in 2017 as they often do after a peak year. A drop of 20% has been experienced to date and this trend should continue the rest of the year because of high prices and mortgage approval changes that have forced some people out of their respective markets. Third, list to sell ratios will continue to favour sellers because of the diminished inventory. Fourth, our valley will continue to look like attractive to many people relocating from the mainland, and outside of the province. Fifth, higher end and specialty home listings began to sell at a higher rate in 2016 than in previous years and this trend should continue in 2017.

Multiple offers will continue to be part of the market but in numbers less than 2017. So sellers get ready to list your home if you plan to sell it in 2017. Contact Brett to list your home and obtain advice on when to get it on the market.

Buyers if you have a home to sell before you can buy one in the Comox Valley get in on the market early and get an unconditional offer on it BEFORE you start looking seriously to buy. Many sellers were not accepting offers subject to the sale of homes in 2016 and this trend will likely continue in 2017. Contact Brett to be your agent and have him set up an account for you to get you the latest listing information as soon as it becomes available.