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The local Comox Valley property market entered a new phase of the next cycle over the past 6 months. Good listings are down (in some sectors by as much as 40%), sales are up and prices are continuing to rise. This activity has been dramatic when compared to the past 8 years.

Our local market last peaked in 2007 when prices reached new highs. This was followed by the crash in sales of 2008 when they dropped about 32%. The subsequent 6 years favoured buyers in most instances and the overall market was a buyers’ market. Lows were reached in 2014 and the market started to show signs of becoming more neutral by the end of the year. This trend continued in 2015 and by the fall of that year some sectors were starting to favour sellers. Over the most recent 6 months this trend strengthened and the average single family home price in the Comox Valley shot up from just under $345,000 in Dec 2015 to just over $403,000 in April 2016. As of August the average sell price was $446,900. Average prices in a small market are not always the best metric so the following chart presents both average and median home prices in Comox as an example. What is clear is the upward trend shown by the arrow for 2016.

Some of the change in this market is due to people leaving the crazy markets on the mainland but much of it is locally driven. Supply and demand are major factors with supply down and demand up. Not every part of the market has reacted the same way but most parts of the local market now favour sellers – a stark contrast to the past 8 years when buyers had the upper hand in most instances. This is no longer the case and it is important that buyers realize this.

Multiple offers and homes selling higher than list has become a reality in some Comox Valley home transactions. As well, many sellers will not consider offers subject to the sale of someone else’s home. While this type of offer was considered in the past along with time clauses that ranged from 24 to 72 hours the practice is currently very uncommon. Yes, buyers the market has changed and forecasts over the past 2 years forecasting the change along with higher prices are now being realized in this part of Vancouver Island.

Anyone thinking of selling or buying a home here should contact a realtor who knows the market well and what it is doing and where it is headed. Want a realtor with expert knowledge and someone who will go Above and Beyond to meet your real estate needs? Contact Brett through his website at www.brettcairns.com and get started realizing your home sales and purchase goals.

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• Myths About the Comox Valley Debunked

The Comox Valley is one of the most beautiful places to live in Canada. Its combination of beautiful natural landscapes, tight-knit communities, and economic prosperity means that this region is one of the fastest growing in the country. Despite this reality, there are a few myths and misconceptions out there about living or buying a home here. I would like to take this opportunity to debunk some of the myths about the Comox Valley.

• It’s too expensive

At first glance, it might seem like living here or buying a home is too expensive, seeing as how the average sale price for a home is quite high these days, but numbers never tell the full story. Check out all of the great real estate options Not only does the number fluctuate greatly because homes are such a major purchase and relatively few are purchased each year (meaning that even small variations can swing the price by huge amounts), but it is also unfairly skewed by some of the incredibly large luxury homes that go on sale in remote parts of the area. In general, family homes are affordable throughout the valley, and necessities or entertainment also don’t break the bank in any way.

• There is nothing to do

The location of the valley is a few hundred kilometres from the nearest “big city” which often gives us the unfair distinction of being “out in the sticks.” This drives away potential residents that are scared of being left out in the country with nothing to do. This is patently false. Not only are there plenty of people in the area, but there is plenty to do as well. The towns in the valley have entertainment options, but they also have craft breweries, fine dining, night life, and cultural activities. On top of that there are limitless parks, coastline, islands and other outdoor activities to keep your day full. It might not be a huge metropolis, but the Comox Valley is full of great things to do.

• It is too dependent on tourism

Many people are wary of moving into the valley because they believe that the only stability here is in the outdoor tourism of the national parks and forests in the area. This makes them believe that there just aren’t enough jobs for people. This couldn’t be further from the truth. In fact, our economy here is one of the most diverse in the nation. We have thriving health care, agriculture, fishing, construction and retail industries.

As you can see, there are some persistent myths about the Comox Valley that sometimes drive people away or make them wary of ever buying a home here. I want you to know that they are all false. Not only is it affordable, vibrant, and thriving economically, but it is also stunningly beautiful and conveniently located. In reality, buying a home in the Comox Valley is one of the best investments that you can make.

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• Most Active Local Home Sale Area

The Comox Valley occupies a fair bit of real estate on Vancouver Island . Over the past year there were 2818 homes and properties listed for sale in the Comox Valley. Of those listed, 1477 sold. The sales occurred in small areas such as the City of Courtenay, the Town of Comox, the village of Cumberland and other communities such as Royston, Union Bay, Fanny Bay, Merville, and Black Creek as well as regional areas like the Comox Peninsula. Not all areas, however, were as active as others.

Courtenay, Comox and the immediate surrounding areas accounted for 83% of sales in the entire valley. Courtenay homes for sale always represent the largest segment of this market. Two local areas within this central part of the valley accounted for just over 40% of all sales. These were Courtenay East and the Town of Comox which are both located next to each other on the East side of the Courtenay River. It is not surprising that this is occurring since this area of local neighbourhoods represents the area of most growth and new home construction. The following map shows some of the more well known local neighbourhoods in this area of the local real estate market. The blue market depicts Brett’s office location in Comox. The green markers show some of the neighbourhoods in Comox and the red markers show some of them in Courtenay East. Click on any of the markers for a photo and description of the specific neighbourhood of homes.

Homes in this area offered for sale range from condos starting around $100K and they go up to single family homes offered for sale in excess of $1M. There are condos, patio homes, town homes, duplexes, and signle family homes. Homes inlcude ranchers, two story, split level and many other styles. Some have ocean views, others have mountain and glacier views and some are on a golf course. There is not much you cannot find here. Your options are nearly endless. So if you are new to the area this is a pretty good place to start looking.

Most Active Local Homes Sales Areas and Neighbourhoods

Consider some of the hyper local neighbourhoods in this small area:

1. Beckton Estates at the western edge of Comox;.

2. Foxxwood Heights and Mulberry Lane at the north end of Comox;

3. Lancaster Heights and Murrelet Place at the eastern edge of Comox;

4. Valley View Estates at the southwestern edge of Courtenay East;

5. The Woodlands and Aberdeen Heights at the southern edge of Courtenay East near Lerwick Drive;

6. Crown Isle on the eastern side of Courtenay East; and

7. Mission Ridge and Mission Hill on the northern edge of Courtenay East.

Clearly this map does not show all of the areas in this most active part of the local real estate market. When you need more detailed info contact Brett to be your Realtor and guide to find your next home in the Comox Valley.

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• The 2015 Comox Valley Real Estate Market

As 2014 draws to a close, 2015 rapidly approaches. Over the past year the Comox Valley real estate market experienced a number of changes. The year followed the bottom of a pricing cycle and sales increased to a level not seen since 2009. As sales picked up throughout the year overall inventory dropped and as of the writing of this blog it is about 4% less than last year. While 2014 sales are still below the 20 year average number of sales it will be very close to it by year’s end.

At the start of 2014 we were still dealing with a buyer’s market but as the fall approached we were seeing signs of a move towards a more neutral market and many sellers were not as willing to take the discounts from market prices they had been earlier in the year. As the year comes to a close, the 12 month average price of a single family home in the valley is actually up 5% from last year.

Looking at overall sales, many variations of homes in Courtenay sales and Comox still dominate the market with 36% and 26% of market share respectively. Cumberland is a distant third at 9%. Houses make up 57% of the residential properties that are for sale in the Comox Valley. Condos come in second at 36%.

The luxury home market showed signs of life in 2014. For example, there were no sales of homes over $1M in 2012, there were five in 2013 and six this year. Having said this the luxury home market currently remains a buyers market. As of the 1st of December, there were 201 active listings offered for sale above $500,000. Of these, 170 were in the $500,000 to $1M price range, 25 were priced between $1M and $2M and there were six over $2M. As well, the inventory of waterfront homes shrunk and 1 in 4 sold in 2014.

So what does this all mean? We should see a modest price increase in the Comox Valley home market in 2015. Inventory should continue to fall and sales should increase. We will likely see a market that is close to neutral and we should also see a luxury home market moving towards a more neutral market. One of the key factors to watch will be interest rates. The Bank of Canada is on record stating that there should be a rise in the prime rate next year so if that happens mortgage will become more expensive.

Buyers, if you are thinking of buying get it done early in 2015 and if you have a home to sell get it on the market very early in the year so that you are in a position to buy when the market heats up. If you wait you may end up paying more for the same home and you could miss the best time of the market if your home does not sell.

Want to know more? Contact Brett and make an appointment to list your home or to ask Brett to be your buyer’s agent. Let’s get started to make 2015 a great real estate experience for you whether you are a buyer or a seller.

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• Comox Valley Real Estate May 2014 Update

This is the Comox Valley real estate May 2014 update. So what is happening in our Comox Valley real estate market? It is heating up. Over the past month sales have picked up and new listings that represent value are not on the Comox Valley market long before they sell. There are a number of signs pointing to the start of a new Comox Valley cycle.

Let’s take a look at some April 2014 Comox Valley home sales statistics:

• The total number of active listings was down about 5% compared to this time last year;
• The number of new listings in the month of April was also down about 5% compared to this time last year;
• The number of units reported sold was up about 11% compared to this time last year; and
• The sell to list ratio was up by about 6%;

All of this is a good sign for Comox Valley home sales. Last year we saw prices correct and bottom in some segments of the market. With listings down, total inventory down, and sales up, the effect is healthy. Pent up demand is currently being exercised by some buyers. This remains a good time to buy and it also represents an opportunity for sellers to sell.

As we more forward, there are a number of reasons to expects sales volumes to continue to increase and for the market to continue a move towards a more neutral market over time. In nautical terms, we are past the ebb and on the path of the flow.

Single family homes sales are following a similar trend. Total listings are down about 7.5% and new listings are down about 9%. Sales are up about 12% and sell to list ratios have climbed up by nearly 9%. Specific segments of the market are experiencing similar results. Higher end homes are selling in areas where they were not last year and days to sell overall are down slightly.

There are, of course, much more to this than statistics. When used selectively Comox Valley real estate market statistics can be used to show almost anything. When these numbers are combined with the knowledge and experience of a Comox Valley realtor who knows the area and market well, they can be used to paint a fairly complete picture of what is happening with Comox Valley property listings and home sale.

If you are thinking of buying or selling, contact me and let’s get started on meeting your Comox Valley real estate needs.

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• Comox Valley Real Estate Market Changes

At this time of the year the our regional real estate market generally becomes more active. But what exactly does this mean and why is it important? If you are a home buyer or a home seller in this market this information is important because it may directly affect the purchase or sale of your home.

In order to capture the pulse and direction of this real estate market let’s take a look at a few statistics. Last month there were a total of 229 units listed. At that time last year the number was 263. This year the total number of real estate listings in February was 1239. A year before it was 1371. The statistics in January 2014 were similar. The number of units listed was 243 compared to 300 and the total number of real estate listings was 1135 compared to 1266 the year prior. So, based on these two months, listings were down about 18-19% by month compared to the year before and the total number of listings was down about 10%. Clearly, two months statistics alone do not tell the entire story but when combined with first hand experience a more complete picture materializes.

Let’s go back in history for a moment and look back to how we arrived at 2014. The Comox Valley property market peaked in 2007 and total sales plummeted the next year by about 32%. 2008 was a rocky year and it marked the beginning of a new cycle and a new reality for our real estate region. Throughout the period 2009 to 2012 there were fluctuations up and down but the overall trend was clear. Sales were down and they stayed down at or near the levels in 2008. Time to sell started to increase and so did the total amount of inventory. If we were describing the stock market we would use terms like a “bear” market to describe what was happening. Our market became a buyer’s market and it stayed so from the end of 2008 through 2013. While all of this was happening interest rates in Canada dropped to at or near 50 year lows. The end result was a great opportunity for buyers to buy a home or property in the Comox Valley.

As we experienced 2013, there were a few more subtle changes in Comox Valley area home prices and sales. Beginning in late spring homes that represented the core of the Comox real estate market (split level homes that are considered classic for the area) began to adjust downwards in price. If one of these homes sold for about $310K in the spring, many were selling in the $280K range by the late fall. There was a definite price adjustment in the market that seemed to signal the end of a cycle. So where are we now? Listings are down and sales have started to move. As this trend continues demand will increase and the market should start moving away from the buyer-centric focus it has had for the past 5 years to one that becomes a bit more neutral. While these types of changes take time, there are indications that this change is underway. How quickly and how markedly the changes occur will depend on a number of factors, some of which are beyond the scope of our local real estate market. However, any movement in this direction is a good sign for sellers, especially those who have been trying to sell for some time.

As I am sure many of you know, real estate is a cyclical business (within each year and across a number of years). The current homes featured in Courtenay market remains good for buyers and it is moving towards a better situation for sellers. Even with these changes and this movement, there are a few constants as follows:

• Price is important in most market conditions. Homes priced above the market are harder to sell and in some markets they may attract little or no attention when homes of better value are placed on the market
• Homes that are clean and properly presented make better first impressions and they are more likely to attract buyers.
• Homes that are maintained well are more likely to have fewer problems when offers are made and inspections are completed during the removal of conditions phase of an offer

While there is much more to real estate considerations associated with the current conditions of the Comox Valley real estate market, these of some of the more obvious ones. If you are looking to buy or sell a Comox Valley home, contact Brett Cairns of RE/MAX Ocean Pacific Realty to make an appointment with me so we can discuss how he can help you meet your real estate needs.