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Comox Home Prices Continue to Climb in this Hot Market

March 10, 2017 by Brett Cairns

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Comox Home Prices Jan 2015 to March 2017

The following chart shows that Comox home prices continue to climb when compared to the previous two years and how they continue to climb as we are into our third month of 2017.

To see why this past year has been remarkable let’s go back in time and look at home prices in the Comox Valley for the period 2010 to 2015.

Comox Valley Home Prices Jan 2010 to Jan 2015

Changes in the Market

Following the significant correction in our market right after the peaks of 2007 the market turned into a buyers’ market. In general over that time period listings were plentiful and prices oscillated up and down for about 5 years until they hit bottom in the fall of 2015. At that point in time there were signs that prices would start to rise as listings dropped off. By the spring of 2016 prices started their sustained upward trend and they have stayed that way since.

The Situation in March 2017

The current real estate market favours home sellers in many different (but not all) sectors. New listings and total listings are down from previous years and prices are up. This notwithstanding, sellers must still price homes competitively even in the current market. Home buyers are savvy and have a great deal of information at their fingertips with which to compare.

Here are a few examples of the current market:
Single family homes in the Town of Comox – average price up 27% over the past year
Single family waterfront in the Comox Peninsula – sell to list price of 97%
Single family homes in downtown Courtenay – days to sell average down to 56 from 111
Condo apartments in Courtenay East average sell price down 16%
Single family acreages in Courtenay North – total sales dollars down 40%

Clearly, statistics are informative but only to a point. They must be used and understand in the context of the entire market and applied to specific situations. While some homes sell like hotcakes in the current market this is not the case for all homes. Things like condition and presentation still play a very important role as do other factors. Take a look at the following chart for Dec 2016 to see some of the variances.

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Where is the Market Headed?

Expect the market to continue to favour home sellers in 2017 and into 2018 unless we experience a major change in the number of new listings or in the prime interest rate. As long as listings remain low, prices will continue their upward trend. With a provincial election on the horizon in early May, it is always possible to be surprised with the resulting impact. However, it is not just the provincial government that can adversely affect us and our livelihoods. The federal and municipal governments can do that as well.

Economic Storm Clouds are on the Horizon

Have you noticed how expensive groceries have become over the past year? The construction industry and many other businesses are feeling this economic pain in Canada as well. Our falling Canadian dollar and the growing debt and deficits at the federal and provincial levels are key contributors to this effect and rise in prices. When the cost of building materials goes up so does the cost of building homes and there is often a spillover effect into the resale home market.

Take a look at your net income and ask how you can raise it? Likely you will conclude that you either have to make more money, or reduce expenditures. Have you noticed lately how many Canadian businesses are starting to charge us in $US dollars for their fees, products and services online? When business expenses go up so does the cost of products and services. Almost everyone today is a consumer of internet products and services and like it or not the $US dollar is a key standard by which products and services are provided via the internet. When our dollar is low it costs us all more to live. Yes it is that simple. When it comes to trade, our country sends nearly 85% of what we produce to the US and they send about 25% of what they produce to us. A low Canadian dollar currently sitting at around 74 cents to the US dollar is not good for us. It was not that long ago when we read an article that said Loonie below par for the 1st time since November.

Governments that are not pro business or ones that spend recklessly and rack up our deficit and add to our debt can do damage to our real estate market and other areas of the economy. Within BC our total debt sits around $67 billion and within Canada our debt sits at about $680 billion. At the federal level the deficit and debt are both increasing dramatically and the impact on us could be significantly negative. The counties economic growth projections have been reduced to only 1.7% over the next five years. Federal government spending is costing us too much and too much of our tax dollar base is being wasted. At the current debt to GDP nearly 30% of all government tax dollars collected goes to paying interest on the debt instead of being directed at programs that benefit us. This article by the Fraser Institute that our combined Canadian Debt stands at about $1.3 trillion dollars – a staggering figure for a country of over 35 million people. What is even more concerning is the more than $600 million of the total debt that is owed to creditors outside of our country. We should all be alarmed by governments such as the current federal government that is making this situation worse. If we all continually spent more than we made we would be bankrupt.

Besides the dollar and our country’s debt and deficit, government inefficiency also costs us money as taxpayers. Bureaucrats at all levels share some blame in this. Yes there are bureaucrats who work tremendously hard to provide us services but there are far too many who seem to forget why their jobs exist in the first place. Having worked within and with bureaucracies for more than 44 years there is not much I have not seen or experienced. Consider the following few examples:
a public servant who is entitled to two sick days a month and always take them (often on Fridays);
a public servant who does not delegate decision making so when they go on holiday for a month things grind to a halt;
a public servant who do not believe that they are responsible to us as taxpayers; and
bureaucrats who ensure that they spend “end year” money at the end of each fiscal year to ensure their budgets do not get cut.

As I said earlier this attitude is not rampant in government but every instance of such behavior is bad for us as taxpayers.

So, a low Canadian dollar, a high debt and deficit and inefficiencies in governments at all levels are contributing to the rising costs that we are all now facing. The real estate market is affected by rising costs like many other sectors of our economy and we all end up feeling the economic pain.

What Can Be Done?

Three things:
1. Hold the Prime Minster accountable for getting the deficit back to ‘0″ and for starting to reduce the debt;
2. Hold Premiers to the same standard;
3. Hold the Prime Minster accountable for explaining to us what he is doing to peg our dollar to the US dollar, a currency owned by our single largest and most important trading partner and one which is a standard measure for most of the world; and
4. Holding all levels of government accountable to eliminate inefficiencies and red tape that cost us time and money. Do we really need all of the local bureaucracies (City, Town, Village, Region and District level) for a population of 66,527 people?

We all share a responsibility to elect people to represent us who will be economically responsible with the tax dollars collected from us. Yes we all like services being provided to us but they all cost money. How many people do you know that talk about free health care in Canada. It is NOT free. Health care in Canada costs us nearly $230 billion each year and the costs are rising. If our government were to get our deficits eliminated and over time get our debt back to 0 (yes it used to be 0) think of all the money currently spent on paying interest on the debt (to creditors within and outside of the country) that could be freed up to provide us needed services.

Summary of Our Real Estate Market

Our real estate market is experiencing low supply and rising prices. While local conditions do impact our market so do much larger economic issues. Our beaten down dollar compared to the $US dollar, government spending that is racking up annual deficits and total debt, and inefficient bureaucracies all make things worse economically. The price of construction materials has gone up significantly and this, in part, has drive up prices in our market.

Filed Under: Comox Valley Real Estate News & Market Updates

2016 Comox Valley Real Estate Market | Up Up and Away

December 7, 2016 by Brett Cairns

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The local Comox Valley property market entered a new phase of the next cycle over the past 6 months. Good listings are down (in some sectors by as much as 40%), sales are up and prices are continuing to rise. This activity has been dramatic when compared to the past 8 years.

Our local market last peaked in 2007 when prices reached new highs. This was followed by the crash in sales of 2008 when they dropped about 32%. The subsequent 6 years favoured buyers in most instances and the overall market was a buyers’ market. Lows were reached in 2014 and the market started to show signs of becoming more neutral by the end of the year. This trend continued in 2015 and by the fall of that year some sectors were starting to favour sellers. Over the most recent 6 months this trend strengthened and the average single family home price in the Comox Valley shot up from just under $345,000 in Dec 2015 to just over $403,000 in April 2016. As of August the average sell price was $446,900. Average prices in a small market are not always the best metric so the following chart presents both average and median home prices in Comox as an example. What is clear is the upward trend shown by the arrow for 2016.

comox-home-prices-last-two-years

Some of the change in this market is due to people leaving the crazy markets on the mainland but much of it is locally driven. Supply and demand are major factors with supply down and demand up. Not every part of the market has reacted the same way but most parts of the local market now favour sellers – a stark contrast to the past 8 years when buyers had the upper hand in most instances. This is no longer the case and it is important that buyers realize this.

Multiple offers and homes selling higher than list has become a reality in some Comox Valley home transactions. As well, many sellers will not consider offers subject to the sale of someone else’s home. While this type of offer was considered in the past along with time clauses that ranged from 24 to 72 hours the practice is currently very uncommon. Yes, buyers the market has changed and forecasts over the past 2 years forecasting the change along with higher prices are now being realized in this part of Vancouver Island.

Anyone thinking of selling or buying a home here should contact a realtor who knows the market well and what it is doing and where it is headed. Want a realtor with expert knowledge and someone who will go Above and Beyond to meet your real estate needs? Contact Brett through his website at www.brettcairns.com and get started realizing your home sales and purchase goals.

Filed Under: Comox Valley Real Estate News & Market Updates

Myths about the Comox Valley Debunked

August 28, 2015 by Brett Cairns

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The Comox Valley is one of the most beautiful places to live in Canada. Its combination of beautiful natural landscapes, tight-knit communities, and economic prosperity means that this region is one of the fastest growing in the country. Despite this reality, there are a few myths and misconceptions out there about living or buying a home here. I would like to take this opportunity to debunk some of the myths about the Comox Valley.

  • It’s too expensive

At first glance, it might seem like living here or buying a home is too expensive, seeing as how the average sale price for a home is quite high these days, but numbers never tell the full story. Check out all of the great real estate options Not only does the number fluctuate greatly because homes are such a major purchase and relatively few are purchased each year (meaning that even small variations can swing the price by huge amounts), but it is also unfairly skewed by some of the incredibly large luxury homes that go on sale in remote parts of the area. In general, family homes are affordable throughout the valley, and necessities or entertainment also don’t break the bank in any way.

  • There is nothing to do

The location of the valley is a few hundred kilometres from the nearest “big city” which often gives us the unfair distinction of being “out in the sticks.” This drives away potential residents that are scared of being left out in the country with nothing to do. This is patently false. Not only are there plenty of people in the area, but there is plenty to do as well. The towns in the valley have entertainment options, but they also have craft breweries, fine dining, night life, and cultural activities. On top of that there are limitless parks, coastline, islands and other outdoor activities to keep your day full. It might not be a huge metropolis, but the Comox Valley is full of great things to do.

  • It is too dependent on tourism

Many people are wary of moving into the valley because they believe that the only stability here is in the outdoor tourism of the national parks and forests in the area. This makes them believe that there just aren’t enough jobs for people. This couldn’t be further from the truth. In fact, our economy here is one of the most diverse in the nation. We have thriving health care, agriculture, fishing, construction and retail industries.

As you can see, there are some persistent myths about the Comox Valley that sometimes drive people away or make them wary of ever buying a home here. I want you to know that they are all false. Not only is it affordable, vibrant, and thriving economically, but it is also stunningly beautiful and conveniently located. In reality, buying a home in the Comox Valley is one of the best investments that you can make.

Filed Under: Comox Valley Real Estate News & Market Updates

Most Active Local Home Sale Area

March 8, 2015 by Brett Cairns

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The Comox Valley occupies a fair bit of real estate on Vancouver Island . Over the past year there were 2818 homes and properties listed for sale in the Comox Valley. Of those listed, 1477 sold. The sales occurred in small areas such as the City of Courtenay, the Town of Comox, the village of Cumberland and other communities such as Royston, Union Bay, Fanny Bay, Merville, and Black Creek as well as regional areas like the Comox Peninsula. Not all areas, however, were as active as others.

Courtenay, Comox and the immediate surrounding areas accounted for 83% of sales in the entire valley. Courtenay homes for sale always represent the largest segment of this market. Two local areas within this central part of the valley accounted for just over 40% of all sales. These were Courtenay East and the Town of Comox which are both located next to each other on the East side of the Courtenay River. It is not surprising that this is occurring since this area of local neighbourhoods represents the area of most growth and new home construction. The following map shows some of the more well known local neighbourhoods in this area of the local real estate market. The blue market depicts Brett’s office location in Comox. The green markers show some of the neighbourhoods in Comox and the red markers show some of them in Courtenay East. Click on any of the markers for a photo and description of the specific neighbourhood of homes.

 


Homes in this area offered for sale range from condos starting around $100K and they go up to single family homes offered for sale in excess of $1M. There are condos, patio homes, town homes, duplexes, and signle family homes. Homes inlcude ranchers, two story, split level and many other styles. Some have ocean views, others have mountain and glacier views and some are on a golf course. There is not much you cannot find here. Your options are nearly endless. So if you are new to the area this is a pretty good place to start looking.

Most Active Local Homes Sales Areas and Neighbourhoods

Consider some of the hyper local neighbourhoods in this small area:

1. Beckton Estates at the western edge of Comox;.

2. Foxxwood Heights and Mulberry Lane at the north end of Comox;

3. Lancaster Heights and Murrelet Place at the eastern edge of Comox;

4. Valley View Estates at the southwestern edge of Courtenay East;

5. The Woodlands and Aberdeen Heights at the southern edge of Courtenay East near Lerwick Drive;

6. Crown Isle on the eastern side of Courtenay East; and

7. Mission Ridge and Mission Hill on the northern edge of Courtenay East.

Clearly this map does not show all of the areas in this most active part of the local real estate market. When you need more detailed info contact Brett to be your Realtor and guide to find your next home in the Comox Valley.

Filed Under: Comox Valley Real Estate News & Market Updates

The 2015 Comox Valley Real Estate Market

December 7, 2014 by Brett Cairns

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As 2014 draws to a close, 2015 rapidly approaches. Over the past year the Comox Valley real estate market experienced a number of changes. The year followed the bottom of a pricing cycle and sales increased to a level not seen since 2009. As sales picked up throughout the year overall inventory dropped and as of the writing of this blog it is about 4% less than last year. While 2014 sales are still below the 20 year average number of sales it will be very close to it by year’s end.

At the start of 2014 we were still dealing with a buyer’s market but as the fall approached we were seeing signs of a move towards a more neutral market and many sellers were not as willing to take the discounts from market prices they had been earlier in the year. As the year comes to a close, the 12 month average price of a single family home in the valley is actually up 5% from last year.

Looking at overall sales, many variations of homes in Courtenay sales and Comox still dominate the market with 36% and 26% of market share respectively. Cumberland is a distant third at 9%. Houses make up 57% of the residential properties that are for sale in the Comox Valley. Condos come in second at 36%.

The luxury home market showed signs of life in 2014. For example, there were no sales of homes over $1M in 2012, there were five in 2013 and six this year. Having said this the luxury home market currently remains a buyers market. As of the 1st of December, there were 201 active listings offered for sale above $500,000. Of these, 170 were in the $500,000 to $1M price range, 25 were priced between $1M and $2M and there were six over $2M. As well, the inventory of waterfront homes shrunk and 1 in 4 sold in 2014.

So what does this all mean? We should see a modest price increase in the Comox Valley home market in 2015. Inventory should continue to fall and sales should increase. We will likely see a market that is close to neutral and we should also see a luxury home market moving towards a more neutral market. One of the key factors to watch will be interest rates. The Bank of Canada is on record stating that there should be a rise in the prime rate next year so if that happens mortgage will become more expensive.

Buyers, if you are thinking of buying get it done early in 2015 and if you have a home to sell get it on the market very early in the year so that you are in a position to buy when the market heats up. If you wait you may end up paying more for the same home and you could miss the best time of the market if your home does not sell.

Want to know more? Contact Brett and make an appointment to list your home or to ask Brett to be your buyer’s agent. Let’s get started to make 2015 a great real estate experience for you whether you are a buyer or a seller.

Filed Under: Comox Valley Real Estate News & Market Updates

Comox Valley Real Estate May 2014 Update

May 4, 2014 by Brett Cairns

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This is the Comox Valley real estate May 2014 update. So what is happening in our Comox Valley real estate market? It is heating up. Over the past month sales have picked up and new listings that represent value are not on the Comox Valley market long before they sell. There are a number of signs pointing to the start of a new Comox Valley cycle.

Let’s take a look at some April 2014 Comox Valley home sales statistics:

  • The total number of active listings was down about 5% compared to this time last year;
  • The number of new listings in the month of April was also down about 5% compared to this time last year;
  • The number of units reported sold was up about 11% compared to this time last year; and
  • The sell to list ratio was up by about 6%;

All of this is a good sign for Comox Valley home sales. Last year we saw prices correct and bottom in some segments of the market. With listings down, total inventory down, and sales up, the effect is healthy. Pent up demand is currently being exercised by some buyers. This remains a good time to buy and it also represents an opportunity for sellers to sell.

As we more forward, there are a number of reasons to expects sales volumes to continue to increase and for the market to continue a move towards a more neutral market over time. In nautical terms, we are past the ebb and on the path of the flow.

Single family homes sales are following a similar trend. Total listings are down about 7.5% and new listings are down about 9%. Sales are up about 12% and sell to list ratios have climbed up by nearly 9%. Specific segments of the market are experiencing similar results. Higher end homes are selling in areas where they were not last year and days to sell overall are down slightly.

There are, of course, much more to this than statistics. When used selectively Comox Valley real estate market statistics can be used to show almost anything. When these numbers are combined with the knowledge and experience of a Comox Valley realtor who knows the area and market well, they can be used to paint a fairly complete picture of what is happening with Comox Valley property listings and home sale.

If you are thinking of buying or selling, contact me and let’s get started on meeting your Comox Valley real estate needs.

Filed Under: Comox Valley Real Estate News & Market Updates

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