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• Comox Valley Real Estate – 2011 in Review

With just over a week until the end of 2011 and less than a week until Christmas, it is time to review what happened in 2011 in British Columbia and the Comox Valley real estate market. Let’s, then, go back to the first of the year.

From the British Columbia Real Estate Association in 2011:
13 Jan 11 – BCREA reports that 2010 sales declined 12% to 74,760 units and that 2010 prices rose 8.5% to $505,178 (Title of the report was record home prices for 2010)
14 Feb 11 – BCREA reported that January residential sales were down 10 percent compared to January of the previous year.
14 Mar 11 – BCREA reported that February residential sales were up 8 percent compared to February of the previous year and commented that the surge in consumer demand in Metro Vancouver continues to propel the provincial stats higher.
18 Apr 11 – BCREA reported that March residential sales were up 11.5% compared to March of 2010 and commented that surging demand in Vancouver was overshadowing more moderate demand in other regions.
12 May 11 – BCREA reported that April residential sales declined 14% compared to April of 2010.
15 Jun 11 – BCREA reported that May residential sales were down 1% compared to May of 2010.
14 Jul 11 – BCREA reported that June residential sales were up 2.4% compared to June of 2010.
11 Aug 11 – BCREA reported that July residential sales were up 12.9% compared to July of 2010.
14 Sept 11 – BCREA reported that Aug residential sales were up 16.4% compared to August 2010.
14 Oct 11 – BCREA reported that September residential sales were up 8.8% compared to September 2010.
8 Nov 11 – BCREA revised it residential sales forecast to increase to 77,000 units in 2011 and 80,000 in 2012.
14 Dec 11 – BCREA reported that November residential sales remained relatively unchanged from November 2010.

Based on the above statistics, it should be clear that monthly residential MLS sales in British Columbia were up and down each month compared to the same month in the previous year. For the province, total 2011 sales were up about 3% from 2010, but they were still down about 14% when compared to the 10-year average (87,600 units), down 25% compared to 2007 (102,831) and down nearly 28% compared to the peak in 2005 (106,290).

Sales of a multitude of Comox Valley home listings were down nearly 30% from 2007. As well, time to sell rose steadily over the past three years in a number of categories.

Looking forward, what will happen in 2012? First, interest rates are forecast to stay low in 2012. Second, modest sales increases are forecast for 2012. Whether you are a Comox Valley home buyer or home seller in the Comox Valley real estate market, there will be opportunities for buyers and sellers who are prepared for the market that they will enter. Contact Brett Cairns of RE/MAX Ocean Pacific Realty for more information on Courtenay real estate listings or those from any other segment of the market.

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• Comox Valley Real Estate 2012

Comox Valley real estate: The 2012 edition. Happy New Year everyone and welcome to my first Comox Valley real estate blog of 2012. In case you were away over the holiday season and missed it, I reviewed what happened in real estate in Canada, and the Comox Valley, in my blogs dated 28 November 2011 and 20 Dec 2011. A takeaway from these blogs is that sales in the Comox Valley real estate market were down nearly 30% from 2007. To gain an appreciation of what happened over the past two years, visit my website visit the home page of my website and click on the Listings by Area. Then click on Real estate market statistics.

So much for 2011 and prior. What about 2012 and beyond? As of 2 Jan 2012 some economists are downgrading their 2012 Canadian outlook based on the overall global economic situation. Concerns over Europe’s sovereign situation and a euro-zone recession are the main factors. Financial stress in the US and UK is also a concern. The good news out of all of this, however, is that Canada’s financial credibility remains high and central banks understand the need to keep interest rates low.

Clearly the world financial situation is of concern to investors. Having said this, it is important to keep in mind that real estate markets are local. For example, while some parts of Vancouver were quite hot in 2011, this activity did not spill over into the Comox Valley real estate market. While the financial markets around the world will continue to be of interest to the news media, investors and financial institutions in 2012, for most of us, our lives will continue to go on. People will continue to retire in 2012 and they will be looking for a place to do so. People will continue to change jobs in 2012 and the Comox Valley will continue to offer opportunities.

The attractiveness of the higher end Comox houses by the sea will remain. Our valley offers one of the most temperate climates in Canada, scenic beauty all around us, great friendly people, and an abundance of recreational activities to choose from. Construction is continuing and stores and restaurants are being built. Assuming that local bureaucracies are willing to tackle issues such as the need to renew and expand our infrastructure (water, sewer and roads) to effectively support projected growth, our valley should remain attractive to people looking for the lifestyle that our valley offers.

The Comox Valley has many different ways to attract people. When prospective buyers see value in an area, their interest will generate sales. We all have a role to play in how our valley is recognized and regarded by those who do not live here. We are aided by prestigious publications like Conde Nast Traveller when Vancouver Island and some of what is has to offer is recognized for product and service excellence. Location is an extremely important element of real estate. The Comox Valley is a great location and place to live.

Our valley also offers great variety in the type of Comox Valley homes regularly offered for sale – single family urban, rural, farm, lakefront, waterfront, condos, duplexes, patio, manufactured, and others. People who come here have tremendous choice on where they will live and the type of home that they will buy. This presents opportunities for both buyers and sellers but buying and selling strategies will need to be appropriate to be effective in the type of market that we will experience in 2012.

Barring some unforeseen influence, the Comox Valley real estate market should level off in 2012 and we may see some recovery towards the mid to later part of the year. While the global economic situation could generate a negative effect on us, what our valley offers to people should generate a balancing positive effect. If you are thinking of buying or selling real estate in the Comox Valley in 2012, contact Brett Cairns of RE/MAX Ocean Pacific Realty. Be prepared for these opportunities by planning ahead and asking how he can help you with your Comox Valley real estate needs in 2012.

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• Comox Valley Real Estate Insights Spring 2012

Now that we have just over a month of experience in the Comox Valley real estate market for 2012, it is time to discuss where we are and where we might be going. The first month of this year saw an increase in listings from Dec 2011. A bit surprising was the percentage increase in Jan 2012 from a year ago. Listings were up about 28%. This is good news for buyers. There is more choice for buyers. While listings were up significantly, sales did not keep pace with the increase. However, sales were up about 13%. This is fairly normal and it will take a bit of time to see if overall sales will keep pace with the number of new listings. February and March will be important months to establish a trend and Courtenay real estate will lead the way in our market.

To place this discussion in a broader context, let’s also take a look at total inventory in the Comox Valley. At the end of January, our total inventory of Comox Valley homes stood at 1146. This was up about 7.5% from where it was a year ago at that time. The average sale price of homes in the valley in January 2012 was down about 2% compared to a year ago and the days to sell was up about 3% compared to a year ago. As I mentioned above, the next two months will be important to establish real estate trends for 2012.

The Canadian Real Estate Association (CREA) reported an increase in the Conference Board of Canada’s index of consumer confidence in 2012. CREA also reported an increase in the Statistics Canada seasonally adjusted total employment rate with the highest increases reported in Alberta and British Columbia, offsetting job losses in Ontario. While this does not bode well for Ontario and other parts of Eastern Canada, it is a good sign for us out West. Provincially, the British Columbia Real Estate Association is forecasting a 2% increase in sales for our province in 2012 and a 2.7% increase in 2013. By next year we will be above the 15-year average level for sales in BC. While these numbers still are well below the peak we saw in 2007 (currently down about 30% in sales from the peak), the signs are encouraging and moving in the right direction. Slow growth in the Comox Valley real estate market is much better than the no growth in sales we have experienced over the past three years.

On 8 Feb 2012, the Canada Mortgage and Housing Corporation reported an increase in January’s seasonally adjusted annual rate of urban starts by 28% in British Columbia. This stands in stark contrast to the decreases of about 35% in Atlantic Canada and Quebec. Here again, preliminary news for BC in 2012 is positive. The starts means jobs and jobs mean people can afford to make purchases. If this trend continues, BC will once again lead the way.

So what does this preliminary information mean for us. As I mentioned in my end of year blog last year, I am optimistic that we will see a leveling in our real estate market this year and we may see an improvement as the year progresses if world events in the news (such as the European Union problems) are effectively addressed. The increase in listings, consumer confidence and new housing starts are all positive signs. The small increases in days to sell and the small decrease in prices are counteracting forces but the data is too small to yet establish any trend for 2012. Remember that the interest rates in Canada remain at or near all time lows. While we start of the year in a buyer’s market, there are opportunities for sellers. Timing, pricing, and marketing are among the important factors for sellers to realize success in this market.

I understand that the choice of a Comox Valley real estate agent is a personal and important decision because it involves your most important and expensive investment – your home. I also understand that trust is important in a client – agent relationship and I will work hard to earn yours. I follow the market closely and know it well. I also follow external factors that have the potential to affect our local market.

Anyone considering buying or selling a home or property in the Comox real estate market in 2012 is encouraged to contact me to discuss your specific needs, what this market means in your specific circumstances, and to discuss some of the unique advantages I can offer my clients.

Ask Brett Cairns of RE/MAX Ocean Pacific Realty to be your Comox Valley realtor for 2012. According to the Chinese Zodiac, 2012 is the Year of the Dragon which signifies success and happiness. Wishing you happiness and success in business and in your real estate needs for 2012.

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• Comox Valley Real Estate Market Update 29 June 2012

An often asked question is “How is the real estate listings market doing” Monthly Comox Valley real estate market statistics are presented on the home page of my website to provide people with a sense of the health and direction of our real estate market. More recent updates will be presented through my blog. This Market Update 29 Jun 12 looks at the past week. Like all real estate statistics, however, it is important to consider them in some context. Accordingly, people should not make any decisions based on limited statistics in a blog. If you need real estate advice on the market please contact me directly.
 
While I generally will present weekly Comox Valley statistics for the period Sunday through Saturday I will present this week’s statistics a bit early given that the long weekend is coming up and that I hope to be out fishing during the latter part of the weekend.
 
Between the 24th and 29th of June, there were 31 new listings, 44 price reductions, and 18 sales. The number of new Comox Valley MLS listings and sales are down when compared to the previous few weeks. The number of price reductions are significant. The most expensive home sold in the Comox Valley this past week was $499,900 and the least expensive was $210,000. Of these homes, 4 were in the Comox, 10 were in Courtenay, 2 in Crown Isle, and 2 in the Comox Peninsula.
 
What do these statistics tell us of the market? In and of themselves, not much other than most of the real estate sales were in either Courtenay or Comox and most of the home sales were between $210,000 and $499,900.
 
The other notable statistic is the number of price reductions. While the number of price reductions is significant compared to the number of new property listings and sales, without additional information no strong conclusions can be drawn. For example, were these homes listed at market value to start with or were they listed above market value?
 
When looking at this week in a broader context, the Comox Valley continues to be a home buyers market. Some parts of the market are doing fairly well while others are challenging. Some price ranges are moving while others are challenging.
 
I break down the market statistically in greater detail than the broad categories presented by the Vancouver Island Real Estate Board so that I can get a better sense of specific elements of the market. If you are thinking of buying or selling a home in the Comox Valley and need real estate market advice, please contact me. Each part of our market is a bit different at the moment – some parts are moving comparatively normally while others are not. Let’s discuss your specific needs. Contact Brett Cairns of RE/MAX Ocean Pacific Realty.
 

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• Comox Valley Property Market Update 9 July 2012

Time for another real estate listings and prices market update. Canada day has come and gone and so has the annual Vancouver Island music festival. Our weather turned great just before the music festival and many people were outside enjoying the weather and what our great valley has to offer. I even managed to get out a do a bit of fishing. But what went on with our real estate market over the past week or so?

There were 39 new listings in the Comox Valley real estate market, 41 price reductions, and 26 sales. Sale prices ranged from $130K to $590K. There were 17 sales in the city of Courtenay, 5 sales in the town of Comox, 3 in Crown Isle, and 1 in the Comox Peninsula.

At the end of June there were 1535 active real estate listings in the Comox Valley and the sell to list ratio was 51%. The number of listings stood at a level that was about 5% higher than last year and the sell to list ratio was down from last years level of 58%. When compared to the same time last year, the number of days to sell rose about 4%.

So what does last week mean in context? In general, the number of homes on the market rose slightly increasing the overall inventory to the highest level in the past couple of years. While sales were up slightly from the previous week, the overall market remains favourable to buyers. Also favourable to buyers are mortgage interest rates that remain at very low levels.

Buyers and sellers should now be aware of the changes to government back insured mortgages that took effect today. Changes include: a reduction in the maximum amortization period from 30 to 25 years and a reduction from 85% to 80% in the maximum amount lenders can issue home equity loans. Changes also included fixing the maximum gross debt service ratio at 39 percent and the maximum total debt service ration at 44 percent. The gross debt service ratio is based on your monthly housing costs while your total debt service ration also includes your other debt payments. As well, government backed insured mortgages are only available for homes with a purchase price of less than $1 million. On the positive side, mortgage interest rates remain at very low levels.

If you are considering either buying or selling in the Comox Valley, contact me to discuss your real estate needs and the latest real estate market updates. We will review the market as it applies to your specific circumstances and discuss a plan and strategy that will work for you.

Comox Valley Real Estate Market Update 23 July 2012

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• Comox Valley Real Estate Market Update 23 July 2012

The prices of homes and estates in Comox and the trend established in the earlier part of July has continued over the past two weeks. Last week, new home listings outpaced home sales by a factor of about 2:1. Price reductions followed a similar pattern. Comox Valley real estate inventory continues to build in the valley and Comox Valley home sales remain down. Interest rates also remain down and quite low.

Last week there were 42 new real estate listings in our market and 39 price reductions. Total sales in the Comox Valley stood at 25 by week’s end. There were 19 in the City of Courtenay, 3 in the Town of Comox and 2 in Crown Isle. There was also 1 in the Comox Peninsula. Sale prices ranged from $125K to $475K.

Courtenay home and property buyers have some very good opportunities in this market. While the market generally favours buyers, home sellers can also be successful with the right strategy and plan. Interest rates at at or near 50 year lows and this favours home buyers and home sellers. Comox Valley home buyers can afford to buy more home or the home they only dreamed of before. Comox Valley home sellers are more likely to sell their home when there are more buyers who can afford the home.

If you are thinking of buying or selling give me a call and let’s discuss your real estate needs and the latest real estate market updates. Contact Brett Cairns of RE/MAX Ocean Pacific Realty for more info.