After two weeks into 2021 what do we see so far? In the past 60 days there were 75 home sales and in the past 30 days there were 10. Overall, this level of activity was strong for the end of the year and more typical for the start of the new year.  At this early point of the year there were 204 listings of various types throughout the Comox Valley. This inventory is a good start to the year but the next 6 weeks should provide additional insight into what will come this year. More listings means more choice for home buyers who over the past year have not had the choice that a typical year offers. Of course, 2020 was certainly not a typical year.  Let’s all look forward to getting fully back to normal for 2021.

In a normal year the real estate market starts to pick up at this time of year and it accelerates to a different level by the end of February until in culminates in activity at around the end of May. The market drops a bit thereafter but stays active until Labour Day when it again drops in activity until the late fall. From mid December until early January it sits at its lowest level of activity. So, we are just past that point right now and we are anxiously heading into a new year with renewed hope and anticipation. What happens over the next six or so weeks should give us all a better sense of where the Comox Valley real estate market is headed this year.

Current market inventory includes 27 condos and lots below the $200 thousand level. There are 26 listings between $200 thousand and about $330 thousand that are comprised mostly of lots. Single family dwellings start at about the $420 thousand level. There are 55 listings in the $500 to $700 thousand range with most of them being single family dwellings. There are some condos and lots listed in the price range as well. There are 36 listings between the $700 thousand and one million dollar price range with most being single family homes. Thirty listings are over one million dollars. In a typical year we should see many more homes listed in the $500 to $700 thousand range.

There are currently 33 listings in the seaside town of Comox. There are 17 listings in Courtenay East and 19 real estate listings in Crown Isle. These three areas include some of the more sought after family neighbourhoods in the Comox Valley. In total, the City of Courtenay has 110 listings of a wide range of homes and properties. At the moment there is an imbalance in homes listed in these popular areas. As we move further into 2021 we should see more homes and properties listed and more balance achieved if 2021 becomes a more typical year.

There are only six listings currently on the market in Cumberland, 11 in the Merville and Black Creek area, and 15 in the Union Bay and Fanny Bay area. Rural listings in the Comox Valley are almost always outnumbered by those in the urban areas in any given year.

There are only 80 single family homes on the market at the present time and we should see this number start to increase fairly significantly over the next couple of months. If you are looking to relocate to the Comox Valley it is important to be patient and let the number of listings (and therefore choice) increase. Happy New Year and let’s look forward to a great year in the Comox Valley for home buyers and home sellers alike.

What do you want in a Comox Realtor once you have decided to purchase a home in the Comox housing resale market? This is one of the first questions that Brett asks potential clients before asking them anything about their real estate needs. Why? Because real estate is all about a service being provided by people to other people. It involves a professional relationship between an real estate agent and their client. A real estate agent is often a Designated Agency of the Brokerage with which they are affiliated. An agency relationship involves fiduciary responsibilities by the agent to the client. This is currently explained in the Real Estate Council of BC pamphlet called “Your Relationship with a Real Estate Professional”.

Brett works on a client basis because it is the way that Brett can provide the highest level of real estate services by law to his clients. The law currently stipulates that clients can expect loyalty, full disclosure, avoidance of conflicts or interest and confidentiality. This applies to all clients. What the, can Brett provide to clients that the law does not already provide?

Provision of real estate services such as the showing of homes and property options in the City of Courtenay, involves a professional relationship between people. Brett understands that the measure of a person is built on their character and competence. The character of a person embodies who they are as a person. Are they ethical and honest? The competence of a person is demonstrated by what they know and how they perform in their profession through the practical application of their knowledge and skills.

People come to know the character of another person through their words, actions and behaviors and this often takes time when people first meet. This understanding can also be developed through other sources such as biographies and by interacting with other people who know the person or who have worked with them professionally. One can also start to gain an understanding of the competence of the person by listening carefully to what they say and how they say it and by observing how they go about their work. For example, do they use a checklist that is regularly updated to ensure that they do not miss anything important. Have they spent extra time developing material themselves to show their clients in order to give them a better understanding of the local real estate market such as Crown Isle or do they merely use someone else’s work to show this? How thorough are they? Do they provide information on the advantages and disadvantages of homes or do they merely focus on trying to sell you something? Do you feel rushed by them or do they take whatever time is necessary to explain things. How, and to what level of detail do they offer to explain the real estate process? Do what they say makes sense?

There are two adages in life that are almost always true. First, “you get what you pay for”. People who list homes often ask for a discount early on in a listing presentation. Some even raise the question up front. How can a person make any assessment on value without knowing what is being offered. If you want quality and thoroughness, you will often have to pay for quality and thoroughness. The agent has many expenses, both fixed and variable that they have to pay for and many of these cannot be negotiated. Thoroughness takes time and in business time is money.

The second is “actions are stronger than words”. Do not be fooled by persuasive marketing and other propaganda. Listen to what a person says but watch their behaviors and actions. At the end of the day each real estate agent varies in their character, competence, knowledge, skills, behavior and actions. Buying and selling a home is a very important transaction in most peoples’ lives, but the professional relationship and trust between a client and a real estate agent is more important. Are your best interests really being protected? Are your needs being placed first?

Contact Brett and make an appointment with him to find out what advantages he offers to home sellers and buyers in the Comox Valley

Is the Comox Valley real estate market open during the Coronavirus lock down? YES it is. The BC Government stated that real estate services are an essential service in BC that that people rely on real estate agents for these services. Not all real estate agents are working during this challenging period but Brett is. Why is that?

Brett has enough life experience to know what it takes to be safe through a pandemic. Brett also understands how important it is for you and your family to relocate and find a home that meets your needs WHEN you need to do so. Brett also understands that real estate purchases and sales are very significant monetary transactions for most Canadians. Finding a trusted source of real estate information, advice and expertise is very important for peace of mind during this process. Brett has been a professional for more than 35 years while working for the Federal Government and for more than 10 years while working as a licensed real estate agent in the Comox Valley. While working for the federal government, he was responsible for multi-billion dollar programs but more importantly, he was responsible for people’s livelihoods and their lives. He rose to the second highest rank in the Canadian Air Force before he retired and he gave direction to people who trusted him with their lives and he gave trusted. advice on many important other issues as well. A summary of his first 35-year career can be found here ​

What makes Brett different from other real estate agents? His background and experience is one area. Through many years of being selected for and performing well in increasingly demanding areas of responsibility, Brett learned just how critically important it was to be trusted by others and that trust had to be earned through actions and not words. Brett takes this same approach to providing real estate services to his clients.

Here is one recent example. A client called him up just before Christmas last year and said that he was interested in purchasing a cottage on a waterfront property in the northern part of Vancouver Island. His clients informed Brett that they had been in conversation with the listing agent on the property and that he was ready to sell it to them at a good price. Brett asked them to wait before working with him and he explained how the new real estate law did not allow them to be properly represented by the other agency because of the ban in dual agency in the province by the government. They decided to give Brett an opportunity to show why he was correct. Brett worked diligently for weeks getting as much information as he could about the property and got to together with his clients just before Christmas. At the end of his presentation Brett recommended that they NOT buy the property because of a number of issues he had discovered and because it would be a bad investment for them based on local recent sales. They agreed with his assessment and recommendation and thanked him for helping them avoid a major financial mistake. Brett received nothing in compensation for his time and expenses other than the knowledge that he did the right thing for his clients.

Brett understands that trust and confidence must be earned and he aims to build and earn this with each of the clients he helps in the Comox Valley real estate market. Brett has personally moved 18 times across North America so he understands the relocation process well and he has developed and maintains a focused local market knowledge that he uses for the benefit of his real estate clients. If you are looking for someone who will go above and beyond for you in this currently challenging market contact Brett through this website and set up an appointment to meet him.

The Internet

The internet was initially developed as a mechanism for information dissemination, and a medium for collaboration and interaction without regard for an individual’s geographic location. A brief history is available here https://dl.acm.org/doi/pdf/10.1145/1629607.1629613.

Cleary, the internet provides a service of unprecedented capability. Information can be disseminated and shared quickly around the world, and individuals can interact and collaborate without having to be in the same geographic area. As well, the internet provides us with a way to purchase products from widely dispersed geographic locations. This is a good thing.

Many people are connected to the Internet on a regular basis each and every day. But, can the information obtained from the Internet be trusted to be accurate and true? The short answer is NO. Not without an independent (and sometimes significant) verification effort. Why is this?

There now is a great deal of crap, fake news, deception, half-truths, lies, and just plain rubbish that litters the Internet. Anyone with access to a computer can express an opinion, write a blog, or make a comment on just about anything on the Internet without any regard for the facts or the truth. Worse, this type of garbage is often now given prominence in search results without any disclosure as to the factual accuracy or truthfulness of the information being presented to you.

Google

Companies like Google use algorithms (such as Rank Brain) to give search prominence today to some things that used to linger in a tiny corner of the Internet in obscurity. Now, when you search for something, your previous search patterns are used by algorithms to present you with things based on your previous search patterns. As well, search algorithms now use things such as popularity to give prominence to what is displayed in search results. Following is an article written by a former Google employee expressing real concern with this approach. https://www.businessinsider.com/google-algorithm-change-fake-news-rankbrain-2016-12

Facebook

When Facebook came onto the scene as a social networking platform, friends, relatives and acquaintances were given a mechanism with which they could communicate and share social information with each other. However, algorithms currently being used by Facebook now limit the information that is shared and to whom it is shared based on factors that include what the intended recipients appear to be interested in. So, even if you intend to send something out to all of your contacts, Facebook will not allow that to happen.

Facebook is NOT a news organization and its so-called “news feed” is not news. Facebook is a social networking platform. Facebook’s algorithm scans and collects information on everything posted in the past week by your friends, everyone you follow, each group you belong to, and every page you have liked. Then it ranks the posts and displays the ones that the algorithm believes that you will find worthwhile.

Worse, is the censoring of information now being undertaken on Facebook by so-called “fact-checkers” under contract with Facebook. This type of selective presentation, brainwashing, and censorship is similar to how a communist party operates. If you are searching for news, stay away from Facebook.

Wikipedia

Wikipedia is supposed to be an online encyclopedia that was launched by Jimmy Wales and Larry Sanger in 2001. The problem with Wikipedia is that almost anyone can create an account and edit the information in an article. If the edit is not challenged or changed by the relatively small number of editors who have a major influence on the site, what is added becomes “fact”. The problem with this approach is the real names of the Editors and their backgrounds and credentials are not known or displayed. Also not known are their knowledge, expertise or motivations. For example, I created an account to make a small correction to an article that had been written on myself. Within a few hours of me making the correction, the incorrect information once again appeared on the site in place of what I had corrected. Does anyone know me better than me? An anonymous editor on Wikipedia thinks so. The approach followed by Wikipedia is reminiscent of what happened with the now defunct Google Business directory. Abuse and self-serving editors contributed to it being shut it down. Secrecy should never be part of anything related to an encyclopedia. Secrecy breeds mistrust and Wikipedia is an online asset that simply cannot be trusted.

Main Stream News

Getting to the facts and finding the truth in the main stream news media has become increasingly difficult. I can still remember what I was told about four decades ago by a very prominent Canadian news broadcaster. He said, remember that first and foremost that we are a business aimed at making money.

A Forbes article reported that 15 billionaires own America’s News Media companies. Part of this article pointed out how a couple of the billionaire owners directly influenced news reporting on items of interest to them and their political and/or social agenda.

https://www.forbes.com/sites/katevinton/2016/06/01/these-15-billionaires-own-americas-news-media-companies/#283bba07660a  The following article much more direct comments on the growing tendency of “influence-seeking oligarchs” to directly influence journalism. https://www.ocregister.com/2017/05/07/the-news-media-are-losing-their-search-for-truth/

The prominent, very well known, and respected Canadian news broadcaster mentioned earlier also states that the person who writes a news story needs to ensure that there is enough truth in an article so that the news organization does not get sued. He added that the headline was intended to grab attention to the article and that the person who wrote the headline was often different than the person who wrote the actual article.

Fake news is not new. A 1995 Harvard Business Review article entitled “Why the news is not the truth” makes the point that much of what appears in the press as business news is corporate propaganda. This does not mean that there is no truth in the main stream media because there are journalists who diligently work towards that aim. It does mean that you cannot take what is provided in the media as factual or truthful at face value without additional work on your part to investigate the veracity and completeness of what is reported. https://hbr.org/1995/05/why-the-news-is-not-the-truth

So How do we find out the facts and the truth?

Carefully and by being prepared to do a lot of reading and research on your own. First, do not “Google” something on the internet and take anything at face value as either factual or truthful (including Wikipedia). Second, do not use Facebook as a news source.

There are far too many political, social, environmental, and other special interest agendas at play in the world. Learn as much as you can about a topic and research both sides of the issue before making a judgement on the veracity of the information. It is also important to check on and confirm the source of the information. Stay open-minded and continue to learn as much as you can. Be prepared to evolve and, if necessary, change your viewpoint based on increased knowledge and experience.

Following are a few other things to consider in your search for facts and the truth.

1. If the source of the information is not provided, or provided anonymously (as is frequently the case on websites with no “About Us” section and websites that do not provide the names of the authors along with verifiable credentials, move on to a different source.
2. If someone tells you that the issue or the science has been settled, move on to a different source. Life is constantly evolving and we should be continuously learning.
3. If someone will not release the facts, figures, or assumptions that provide the foundation or underpinning of the information or argument, move on to a different source.
4. If someone tries to prevent or stifle debate on the issue or information, move on to a different source.
5. If information is filtered or censored, move on to a different source
6. If you are told to accept the information without question, move on to a different source.

There is, of course, much more to this story. In the end, much of what you see, hear, and watch is dependent on the trustworthiness and character of the person who produces the information. Truth Decoded discuss this in much more detail. https://www.amazon.ca/TRUTH-DECODED-Uncovering-Truth-World/dp/1973136309

Since taking power the Trudeau government has introduced several successive measures that have made getting a mortgage in Canada harder for many Canadians. By some assessments borrower rejection rate has gone up as much as 20 per cent after the latest measures were introduced in January 2018. Some borrowers are looking to riskier lenders to get what they need and others are looking for properties with mortgage helper potential.

Secondary suites are fairly common as mortgage helpers. These suites, often located in the basement of homes, provide additional income to homeowners that they can use to help pay their mortgages and other bills. Secondary suites are often defined as a separate living area contained within a single family dwelling that functions as a self-contained unit. There are often restrictions placed on these types of accommodations by municipal authorities. For example, in this Courtenay development services document a secondary suite cannot have a total floor space of more than 90m in area and it must occupy less than 40% of the habitable floor space of the building. Other restrictions also apply.

Carriage homes are fairly common on rural properties in the area. Some new developments are zoned for these homes as well. A carriage home (also called a coach house in some areas) is an outbuilding which was originally built to house horse-drawn carriages. Today municipalities like the City of Courtenay refer to them in their zoning bylaw as “an accessory dwelling unit located on the second storey of an accessory building accessory to a single residential use which contains no interior access to any part of the accessory building below the carriage house and is located on a lot which is a single real estate entity”. Other than where this dwelling is physically located, it sounds a lot like a secondary suite.

Bed and Breakfast (B & B) accommodations can be found in the area as well. This type of accommodation is generally defined as a small lodging establishment that offers overnight accommodation and breakfast, often located in private family homes. Air B & B accommodations have become visible and desirable in recent years. What is the difference? In the Comox Valley, a B & B is regulated by municipal authorities and it is inspected by the Comox Valley Association of Bed & Breakfast and Vacation Rentals to ensure adherence to quality standards. The term Airbnb refers to the American company Airbnb, Inc. which operates an online marketplace for people to lease or rent short-term lodging that includes holiday cottages, apartments, homestays, hostel beds and hotel rooms. They operate the website Airbnb.ca for accommodations in Canada. There is no universal agreement on what constitutes a short term rental although less than 30 days is a good guideline. Airbnb accommodations often currently operate in a legal “grey area” where they are not subject to accommodation regulation and taxes but they are on the radar of many municipalities in BC and this is expected to change. The province of BC and Airbnb recently reached an agreement that will see the online short term rental company collect provincial and municipal taxes through its platform.

Speaking of regulations, local municipalities regulate land and property use through things such as zoning bylaws, building bylaws, permits, and business licenses. As an example, the Town of Comox recently established a zoning amendment bylaw that disallows bed and breakfast accommodations on parcels with a secondary suite or coach house. People thinking about using parts of their home or property as mortgage helpers should check with their local municipality before proceeding with their revenue generation plans.

Two years ago few people forecasted, or even suspected, what the Comox Valley has experienced over the past year: significantly rising prices and very little to choose from on the used housing market. However, this is exactly what has happened and through a month into 2018 this trend continues. Why is this happening?

Affordable Housing

In their election platform, the current Trudeau Liberal Government promised that they “will make it easier for Canadians to find an affordable place to call home.” They also stated “that when affordable housing is in short supply, Canadians feel less secure and the economy suffers.” How have they done?

Mortgage Rules Changes

Trudeau assumed office on November 4th, 2015. In December, 2015 the Trudeau government moved to tighten lending rules for homes worth more than $500,000, saying it was focused on “pockets of risk” in the housing sector. On October 3rd, 2016, the Trudeau government announced several major changes to mortgage rules. The changes seem to be aimed at curbing high demand in two of the country’s fastest growing markets – Toronto and Vancouver – with seeming disregard and shortsightedness for the potential negative consequences in other markets across Canada. Mortgage experts predicted that a “sizable minority” of first-time and high-ratio home buyers will no longer qualify for the mortgage amount they want. Additional changes were announced on October 2017 that became effective on the 1st of January 2018. As a result of all of these changes experts expect that Canadians will be able to afford about 20% less and that it will be much harder for many to qualify for mortgages. This is exactly the opposite of what Trudeau promised in his election platform about “Real Change”.

Federal Debt

The Liberal government’s rationale for these changes was to ensure that Canadians were’t taking on bigger mortgages than they could afford in an era of historically low interest rates. According to the Fraser Institute of Canada, “Trudeau is on track to increase federal debt by more than any other prime minister not burdened by a world war or recession.” The problem with racking up such debt is that the government has to spend more of our tax dollars to pay for the interest on the debt which means there is less money for needed government programs.

Federal Taxes

Trudeau campaigned for tax cuts to the middle class with the following promise: “We will give middle class Canadians a tax break, by making taxes more fair.” Once he became the Prime Minster, the CBC quoted Trudeau as stating “The Liberal Party leader also ruled out any new taxes on the middle class to fund any new government initiatives — including a hike to the GST. Middle-class Canadians have struggled enough — we’re not going to be raising taxes for them.” So what has he done? According to the Fraser Institute, when all the Trudeau government’s changes to the personal income tax system are accounted for “income taxes have been raised, not lowered, on the vast majority (81 percent) of middle income Canadian families.” Once again Trudeau promises us one thing and then does just the opposite.

Interest Rates

When Trudeau entered office the Bank of Canada sat at a 50 year low of 1%. The Bank of Canada raised this rate to 1.25% on the 17th of January 2018. This is the highest rate in almost a decade. All six major banks (CIBC, TD, Bank of Nova Scotia, BMO, National Bank and Laurentian) raised their rates ahead of the Bank of Canada increase with most five-year, fixed rate mortgages now above 5%. While it is always difficult to forecast future rate increases, some forecasters, including economists at Royal Bank of Canada, predict three more quarter-point increases this year. Higher interest rates will make it more difficult to qualify for, and to obtain a mortgage, under the new mortgage qualification stress tests put into place by the Trudeau Government.

The Economy

While the growth of Canada’s economy was strong at 3% in 2017, current projections forecast a reduction to 2.1% in 2018 and 1.9% in 2019 as the stimulus, in the form of historically low interest rates, is withdrawn. According to the Organization of Economic Co-operation and Development, Canada stands out in their report that notes that Canada’s debt has “continued to rise from high levels” Canada’s credit to households for the fourth quarter of 2016 was ahead of all other major economies, including China and the US. At 101% of gross domestic product, this debt level is the highest among developed countries. The report states that this does not bode well for Canada.

Like it or not we, as Canadians, are tied to the US economy as roughly 85% of what we send abroad goes to the US and about 25% of what the US sends abroad comes to Canada. Our infrastructure (roads, power grids, etc.) is highly linked and we share dependencies and vulnerabilities as nations. All the talk by Canadians about changing our financial dependencies away from the US to other countries such as China does not have merit. The geographical reality of our nations bordering one another has a direct bearing on trade. It is much more expensive to ship goods to China than it is to the US. The success or failure of NAFTA talks will have a direct impact on our country as the smaller partner.

Trudeau Government Financial Actions Impact

The Trudeau government promised to make it easier for Canadians to find an affordable place to live but their actions have made it much more difficult. More stringent mortgage rules, massive federal debt, increases in income taxes, and interest rates that are starting to rise do not bode well for the next couple of years of their term.

Local Home Listings and Prices

Locally the number of new home listings was way down in 2017 from historical norms, and home prices were up. The increase in prices are the direct result of a low supply and higher demand for Comox Valley homes by locals as well as by people moving to the valley from higher cost areas such as Vancouver and its suburbs.

Despite political rhetoric to the contrary, governments do not create jobs; small and larger businesses do. Governments can help create the climate and conditions for businesses to flourish but in the small business sector the Trudeau government has done just the opposite. The “tweaks” announced recently to quell political and popular opposition to the Trudeau government’s small business tax reforms will discourage businesses from investing and growing. Moreover, these tweaks will encourage more tax-planning through the use of corporations, and further complicate an already overly complex and costly tax code. This isn’t the way to grow the economy for middle-income Canadians or any Canadians.

There is a perfect storm building in Canada. Can we afford two more years of this government who continues to demonstrate that they often do just the opposite of what they promise?