Real estate listings specifications and features statistics can be misleading. Once again misinformation is being conveyed about our Comox Valley real estate market. Whether this is deliberate based on some agenda, or merely as a result of a lack of understanding of our market is unknown. Nevertheless, yesterday a headline in one of our local Comox Valley newspapers under the news section read “Big Fall in Home Sales, But Prices Rise”. The author of the article was not provided in the article. Someone who does not follow our market closely, after reading this headline, may conclude that prices of most Courtenay property listings are increasing. This is not the case.
The Comox Valley newspaper article makes reference to a large drop in Comox Valley home sales in September compared to the same month a year ago. This is accurate. The article then goes on to mention that the average single home cost was higher by about 7% in September 2012 compared to the same month a year ago. This real estate statistic is nearly meaningless. Why is this you ask?
First, the statistical average of the sale prices of single family homes in the Comox Valley fluctuates on a month to month basis (view the graphs near the bottom of my home page that provide this type of information since January 2010). Average home prices since Jan 2010 have hit a monthly high of about $375K and a monthly low of around $325K. These variations have had more to do with the prices of the homes that sold in a given month than they did with where prices were headed. We are a small realty market, When a few higher priced homes sell in a specific month, the effect on the overall Comox Valley average can be significant. In September 2012, for example, a few homes sold in the $500,000 range and these sales had the effect of increasing the statistical average single family home price from the average of the previous month (and compared to that of the same month last year). More importantly, average prices are not a good barometer of the market or what is happening to real estate prices. Median home prices can provide a better sense of where most of the activity is in a particular price range in the market but neither, on their own, should be used to gain a sense of what is happening to prices in the Comox Valley real estate market.
Second, there are differences within the Comox Valley home market. Single family homes, waterfront homes, luxury homes, and condos, can be, and often are, effected in different ways in the same market. Similarly, higher end single family homes can experience different pressures than those priced in the middle and lower end of the market.
Third, to fully understand what is happening in the Comox Valley property market requires persistent effort and attention over time as well as first hand experience working within the market. Some statistics are useful to gain a better appreciation of the market. Metrics such as sell to list ratios, days to sell, and the number of months of inventory all contribute to a better understanding of what is happening. Each one, however, should not be considered in isolation, without specific context, or over too short a time period.
We remain in a home buyer’s market and there are variations in our market based on the type of home, location, and price range. If you are considering the purchase or sale of a home in the Comox Valley, contact me and let’s discuss your specific needs and circumstances. I can help provide you with a better sense of the market and the opportunities that you may have as either a buyer or as a seller.